Thinking about buying, holding, or exiting a short-term rental in Florida in 2026?
Florida Property Group works with investors to evaluate STR opportunities using real market data, regulatory clarity, and conservative underwriting—so decisions are grounded in performance, not hype. If you are considering your next move, our team can help you assess market fit, deal structure, and downside risk before you commit.
As the US housing market continues its post-pandemic reset, 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined by normalization rather than acceleration. Short-term rentals (STRs) remain resilient, but competition is increasing, and performance dispersion across markets is widening. At the same time, the broader housing market is gradually moving toward balance, creating different opportunities—and risks—for buyers, sellers, and investors.
For STR-focused investors, success in 2026 will hinge less on market momentum and more on disciplined underwriting, regulatory clarity, and operational execution.
Short-Term Rentals in 2026: Resilient, but More Competitive
Demand vs. Supply: Normalization Is the New Baseline
National STR demand continues to grow, but supply growth has been faster. Industry data from major STR analytics providers shows that in 2025, total guest nights increased even as average occupancy rates softened slightly across many US markets. This divergence reflects rapid listing growth that is spreading demand across more properties rather than signaling a collapse in travel demand.
Heading into 2026, occupancy is expected to continue normalizing rather than returning to the elevated levels seen during the pandemic surge. Markets that benefited from short-term, trend-driven demand are feeling this pressure most acutely, while established leisure destinations with durable tourism drivers remain comparatively stable.
Revenue Performance: The Gap Between Operators Is Widening
Recent industry benchmarks indicate that STRs have continued to outperform hotels on revenue per available unit in many US leisure markets. However, performance dispersion is increasing. Well-run properties are maintaining pricing power, while average and poorly positioned listings are experiencing rate compression.
Forward-looking data suggests that 2026 returns will increasingly favor operators who:
- Use dynamic pricing tools instead of static nightly rates
- Actively monitor booking lead times and demand spikes
- Adjust minimum stays, discounts, and channel mix based on real-time data
Operators relying on fixed assumptions or outdated pricing strategies are more exposed as competition intensifies.
Regulation and Operations: Efficiency Becomes a Core Advantage
Regulation remains one of the most important variables in STR performance. Across major US metros, local governments continue to tighten rules through licensing requirements, caps, and primary-residence mandates. These changes are making some urban, city-center STR models less attractive while shifting opportunity toward:
- Clearly permitted zones with established enforcement frameworks
- Leisure destinations with long-standing tourism demand
- Professionally operated, compliance-first properties
At the same time, operator surveys consistently identify staffing challenges and margin pressure as top concerns heading into 2026. In response, automation is becoming standard rather than optional. Smart locks, automated guest messaging, dynamic pricing platforms, and streamlined turnover processes are now essential tools for protecting margins and maintaining review quality.
Buying Property With STRs in Mind in 2026
Market Selection: Favor Clarity Over Speculation
For new acquisitions, regulatory clarity should be treated as a core underwriting input, not an afterthought. Investors are increasingly prioritizing markets with:
- Clear and stable STR ordinances
- Defined permitting and renewal processes
From a demand perspective, destinations with durable tourism drivers—such as beaches, national parks, mountain regions, and major event hubs—are proving more resilient than pandemic-era boom markets that now face oversupply.
Underwriting Assumptions: Stress-Test for Downside
With national STR supply continuing to expand, conservative underwriting is critical. For 2026, investors should model scenarios that assume:
- Lower average daily rates than peak-cycle levels
- Slightly reduced occupancy
- Higher operating, insurance, and financing costs
In 2026, deals need to work without relying on best-case assumptions. Conservative pricing and occupancy scenarios are now the baseline for evaluating risk, not a worst-case exercise.
Property Features That Continue to Drive Performance
As competition increases, fundamentals matter more than novelty. STR-focused buyers are prioritizing properties with:
- Strong digital appeal, including photogenic design and functional layouts
- Review-critical amenities such as fast internet, comfortable beds, climate control, and parking
- Durable, low-maintenance finishes that reduce downtime and protect ratings
In many markets, reliability and guest experience consistency are outperforming highly themed or over-customized properties.
Already Own an STR? Hold, Optimize, or Exit
Operating for an Edge in a Competitive Market
For existing owners, incremental operational improvements can materially impact net performance. In 2026, competitive advantages increasingly come from:
- Active, data-driven pricing management
- Professional guest communication supported by automation
- Consistent cleaning and turnover processes that protect reviews and repeat bookings
In many cases, improving operations delivers higher returns than acquiring additional units in crowded markets.
Hold vs. Sell: Strategic Decision Points
Holding and optimizing may make sense if:
- Your market remains supply-constrained
- STR regulations are stable and well-defined
- Occupancy and repeat demand are consistent
Exiting or repurposing may be worth considering if:
- Regulatory risk is increasing or enforcement is uncertain
- Local supply growth is compressing achievable rates
- Operational complexity and staffing costs are eroding net returns
Some owners are successfully repositioning underperforming STRs into mid-term or long-term rentals to stabilize cash flow.
Buying a Home (Non-STR) in 2026: A More Balanced Landscape
Market Conditions to Expect
Housing forecasts from major industry groups suggest that 2026 will see:
- A rebound in existing-home sales, potentially by double-digit percentages
- Home price growth moderating to the mid-single-digit range
- Mortgage rates easing toward the 6% range, improving affordability relative to recent years
While this does not represent a return to ultra-low-rate conditions, it marks a shift toward a healthier balance between buyers and sellers.
Where Buyers Are Regaining Leverage
Inventory levels have been climbing in many parts of the Sun Belt and Mountain West, contributing to longer days on market and increased buyer negotiating power. In contrast, portions of the Midwest and Northeast remain relatively tight and more seller-friendly.
In markets with rising inventory, buyers are increasingly securing price reductions, repair credits, and seller-paid concessions—trends that have accelerated over the past year.
Selling a Home in 2026: Pricing Discipline Is Critical
Many sellers still hold substantial equity gains compared with their original purchase price. However, as affordability improves and inventory rises, buyers are more sensitive to overpricing.
Successful seller strategies in 2026 include:
- Pricing close to realistic market value based on very recent comparables
- Offering targeted incentives such as closing-cost assistance or rate buy-downs
- Investing in presentation through professional photography, minor repairs, and curb appeal
Over-ambitious pricing increasingly leads to longer listing periods and larger subsequent price cuts.
Broader Real Estate Trends Investors Are Watching
Beyond STRs and single-family housing, 2026 trends point to:
- Continued demand for affordability, energy efficiency, and resilience features
- Sustained interest in multifamily housing driven by rental demand and cost pressures
- Selective strength in commercial sectors such as logistics, warehousing, and specialized R&D facilities
Across asset classes, investors are prioritizing asset quality, transparency, and localized submarket insights over broad national narratives.
Bottom Line for 2026 Investors
The 2026 US real estate market rewards discipline, data, and execution. STRs remain viable, but performance is increasingly tied to regulation-aware market selection and professional operations. Buyers benefit from improving affordability and negotiation leverage in certain regions, while sellers must adapt to a more competitive environment.
For investors evaluating Florida or other STR-heavy markets, localized data and regulatory analysis will be critical to separating durable opportunities from short-lived ones.